
Not Imposing Tariffs Is Costly, Too
Trump is well aware that tariffs come with a price, but doing nothing is not really an option.
Donald Trump loves tariffs for their own sake, but he also regularly resorts to them as a negotiation tactic to achieve a more important objective. In the case of the tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China that took effect today, he made his goal very clear: “to combat the extraordinary threat to U.S. national security, including our public health posed by unchecked drug trafficking.”
The president had delayed the 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada after their perfunctory announcements of cooperation didn’t pan out the way we’d all like.
Everyone knows that Joe Biden created the crisis on the southern border, allowing Mexican cartels more or less carte blanche to invade our country with migrants and drugs — especially fentanyl. What is less covered is the growing problem of fentanyl crossing the northern border from Canada. Trump’s fact sheet says, “Fentanyl seizures at the northern border in the first four months of this fiscal year are quickly closing in on what was seized the entirety of fiscal year 2022.”
JD Vance said of the Canadian tariffs, “We need to see real engagement on the fentanyl issue, on the drug issue. That is fundamentally the underlying element of these tariffs. … It’s not a defense to say more has come from Mexico.”
Because a lot of that fentanyl comes from China, that nation likewise got hit with a 10% tariff today.
Don’t underestimate the stunning cost of fentanyl for American lives and our economy. As historian Victor Davis Hanson writes, “The result over the last decade is more dead Americans from fentanyl than the total number of all U.S. soldiers lost in the wars of the twentieth century.”
We’re either going to pay the price of fentanyl or endure the burden of tariffs as a negotiating move. There’s no cost-free option here, and Trump knows that all too well.
Nevertheless, opponents of tariffs seemingly ignore the border while pointing to the tariffs’ enormous cost as the reason Trump’s policy should be scorned. And make no mistake, there is a significant price to pay via tariffs, and consumers often foot the bill.
First, China, Canada, and Mexico have already retaliated or announced they will do so.
Yesterday, the stock market endured a massive selloff, hitting the retirement accounts of millions of Americans. “Trump is pillaging your wallets and wrecking your 401k with his misguided tariffs to give tax cuts to his billionaires’ club,” an opportunistic Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer posted on X. What a hypocrite. Schumer and his party cause inflation, pillage Social Security, and fight tooth and nail against tax cuts for everyone. He can take his Corona and avocado and stick ‘em where the sun don’t shine.
Still, another part of the tariff cost will hit the automobile market. The manufacture of autos is deeply interconnected among the three North American nations, and one study estimates the 25% tariffs could raise prices by as much as $12,000. Plenty of other goods will become more expensive after four years of Bidenflation has taken its toll and remains stubbornly too high.
There will also likely be negative effects on GDP and job numbers.
Perhaps all of this is why, unlike most other Trump policies, tariffs are decidedly unpopular.
That’s not true just here, of course. An astounding and perhaps unintended consequence of Trump’s tariffs on Canada has been to boost the political fortunes of exiting Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Six weeks ago, the Conservative Party led the governing Liberal Party by 26 points. That lead has totally evaporated, and the Conservatives now trail by two points.
Tariffs aren’t the only reason for that — there are also things like Trump’s trolling about Canada being the 51st state and other domestic considerations — but Trump will find it much harder to negotiate with the Liberals.
With all that pain, is Trump’s plan worth it? He certainly seems to think so, and there are plenty of reasons to believe he’s right.
University of Mississippi economics professor Joshua Hendrickson argues, “The Trump administration has three objectives related to America’s position in the international monetary system. First, it wants to maintain but reduce the financial burdens associated with the U.S.’s leading role. Second, it wants to get our national debt on a more sustainable path. Third, it wants to restore America’s industrial capacity.” Each of those three things can be addressed either through tariffs directly or as a result of negotiations spurred by tariffs.
Hendrickson explains that Trump considers the current situation untenable. Yes, tariffs come with a cost, but again, there’s no cost-free option. Fixing the core problems in the American economy will take work, time, and money, and tariffs are part of that strategy.
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(Updated)