
Trump, Musk, and Social Security
Continuing to ignore our Social Security mess may be politically astute, but it’s economic malpractice.
Two weeks ago, in a wide-ranging interview with podcaster Joe Rogan, Trump acolyte Elon Musk committed political heresy; he mentioned the unmentionable — the implicit unviability of today’s Social Security system.
The ever-quotable Musk characterized Social Security as “the biggest Ponzi scheme of all time,” and he went on to explain why — commitments made to retirees by our government, at ever-increasing cost, paid almost entirely by future taxpayers.
What he said is factually correct, but it elicited an immediate, hair-on-fire reaction from Democrat leaders and media. The mere suggestion of doubt about our government’s ability to stand behind every penny of its lifetime commitment to our citizens is a no man’s land for elected politicians. Even fearless pols like Donald Trump give it a wide berth.
Moreover, Social Security has been a hot topic among Trump critics due to the DOGE team’s claims of discovery of “massive” levels of fraud, about which the president elaborated in gory detail in his address to Congress. Critics deride the DOGE findings and Trump’s remarks as unfounded, reflecting either misunderstanding or willful misrepresentation of SSA database information by the DOGE team. We shall see.
Although the president continues to insist that he “will not touch” Social Security, Medicare, or Medicaid benefits, media has been abuzz with conjecture that he and Musk are cooking up a scheme to repair or replace the hitherto untouchable Social Security monster, the most sacred of all entitlements.
If that turns out to be true, I, for one, would applaud Trump’s willingness to venture into that political minefield. We hired him to deal with our toughest problems. Continuing to ignore Social Security’s looming collapse might be politically sensible, but doing so would be economic malpractice as well.
There is neither mystery nor even much debate about Social Security’s longevity. It’s on life support in the sense that payments depend on future taxpayer funding rather than on a self-supporting trust fund as originally intended (hence Musk’s “Ponzi scheme” characterization).
Multiple analyses confirm Social Security’s inevitable insolvency. Its own Board of Trustees projects that the combined trust funds will be completely exhausted in the 2033 to 2035 timeframe. At that point, and absent major corrective action, Social Security payouts to retirees will drop precipitously and then continue to decline.
Worse, it would not be surprising to see even more pessimistic projections in the next few years. As Musk pointed out to Rogan, the underlying problem is that people are living longer and our population is regenerating more slowly. Although COVID briefly interrupted the life expectancy trend, modern medicine continues to extend it. When Social Security was enacted in 1935, life expectancy for American males was 59.9; now it’s 77.5. Retirement at age 65 was once considered for many the onset of a relatively short remaining lifetime; now, in most cases, it’s just the start of a long and energetic retirement.
Our Social Security dilemma is unlike most contentious issues today. That’s primarily because our elected leaders, on both sides of the aisle, have for years tacitly agreed to ignore the ugly reality — a communal, bipartisan kicking of the can down the road.
There are avenues available to alter our Social Security system to fulfill its original intent, but these come with substantial political peril. Time is of the essence — the longer we wait, the more draconian the necessary corrective action will be.
DOGE’s effectiveness in reducing Social Security waste, fraud, and abuse will help, but it is unlikely to change the big picture. Other potential corrective actions include measures, individually or in combination, such as increasing available funding (i.e., higher taxation in some form), decreasing or extending payout amounts, altering eligibility age, and returning to a trust fund arrangement with better protection and higher growth potential. All are economically viable but politically toxic — the idiom “choose your poison” comes to mind. But the central point here is that doing nothing is not an option; getting the issue out in the open and making hard choices is imperative.
The fiercely negative reaction by congressional Democrats to Trump’s address last week was a clear indicator of the headwinds the new administration will face every step of the way, on matters large or small. That being the case, why shrink from confronting one of the most controversial of all, Social Security?
Maybe Elon Musk’s rookie error of letting the cat peek out of the bag was exactly what we needed.