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March 11, 2025

Tariffs and a Tenuous Economy

Joe Biden left the economy arguably too weak to handle Donald Trump’s tariff strategy right now.

A stock market drop of nearly 900 points in a day is less of a problem than it used to be, but it’s still a big deal, and yesterday was the worst day of 2025. The market holds the retirement savings of millions of Americans, which has a very real effect on our financial security. It is also a barometer of confidence in the U.S. economy.

So, why the drop? In a word, tariffs.

President Donald Trump says “tariff” is a “beautiful word,” but as much as a two-to-one majority of Americans don’t agree. He has imposed tariffs erratically, including his Truth Social announcement this morning that he’s doubling the tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum. That’s retaliation for Canada’s retaliatory 25% tariff on electricity from the U.S. Imposing tariffs is easily Trump’s least popular policy, and for good reasons.

That isn’t to say his tariffs are without good reasons. Tariffs aren’t always about trade. They’re about fairness, yes, but especially in Trump’s case, they’re also about securing our border and saving American lives from the fentanyl crisis. Not imposing them is costly, too.

In short, Trump recognizes that you don’t get anything for free, and he believes desirable things always come with a price.

Knowing that the economy — and especially the stock market — is responding negatively to what seems like his haphazard imposition of tariffs and other countries’ retaliation, Trump tried to allay fears. “There is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big,” he said. “We’re bringing wealth back to America.” All that effort “takes a little time.”

“What I have to do is build a strong country,” Trump added. “You can’t really watch the stock market.”

Looking at the big picture, he’s right. America has lost immense manufacturing power over the last three decades under free trade agreements and with China’s rise since joining the World Trade Organization. Non-college-educated workers have lost ground. That’s a problem. Other countries subsidize their industries even more than we do, and other factors tilt the playing field unfavorably for the U.S.

Other nations also impose more tariffs than we do. “For as much as economic textbooks agree that tariffs are damaging, governments across the world evidently agree with Trump,” writes Conn Carroll at the Washington Examiner. “India imposes an average 17% tariff on all imported goods, China’s average tariff is about 7.5%, and our European allies have an average tariff above 5%. Meanwhile, the U.S. imposes just a 2.5% average tariff on imports.”

As Trump put it, “Our country has been ripped off for many decades, for many, many decades, and we’re not going to be ripped off anymore.”

Correcting all of that imbalance won’t happen overnight, and it won’t come without a price tag.

Nevertheless, Trump should beware. On the campaign trail, he essentially promised to wave his wand on Day One and fix the economy. “We are going to boom like we’ve never boomed before,” he said.

No one outside the Democrat Party or Leftmedia “fact-checking” machine took him literally, of course, but he does run the risk of bearing the blame if we slip into negative GDP territory. Millions of us did expect economic growth.

No president possesses a wand or a button that controls the economy. Every one of them loves to pretend he does when things go in the right direction, and each of them blames his predecessor when things go badly.

Trump came into office with the weak economy Joe Biden handed him. It was Biden and the Democrats who caused inflation and undermined the recovery from COVID. That doesn’t mean they won’t happily blame Trump — with help from the propaganda media — for any further slowdown now.

Inflation has been stubbornly creeping back up in recent months, the latest jobs report was unimpressive, and there are fears of a recession looming. Recession fears can be self-fulfilling. These factors blunt Trump’s leverage on tariffs, even if he has good reasons for wanting to impose them.

“First,” says Heritage Foundation economist and former Trump adviser Stephen Moore, “let’s get the economy booming again, and then let’s talk about tariffs.”

Trump seems unlikely to take that advice. So, how much economic pain is he willing to endure now for more long-term security? More importantly, can the president be careful and precise enough with his policy application to achieve the desired results with minimal pain?

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