The Trump Effect: Winning Hearts and Minds
Trump, as a politician, has never been more popular.
Democrat strategist James Carville advises his party to simply wait for President Donald Trump to fail: “I’m telling the Democrats, just sit there, play possum. Let them go, let them go, let them go. Poll numbers have declined, and the collapse is already underway. … Just let the ball come to you. We don’t need to be aggressive now.”
Carville may have to wait a bit longer. The February 2025 Harvard CAPS/Harris poll registered a Trump approval rating of 52%, far higher the Trump’s approval at this time in his first term. Trump, as a politician, has never been more popular.
Of the 11 Trump policies the poll asked Americans about, only one failed to draw majority support. Just 39% approved of Trump renaming the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America. Other than that, Americans, at least for now, support Trump’s ambitious agenda: 81% support deporting illegal aliens “who are here illegally and have committed crimes”; 76% agree with Trump’s effort to eliminate government fraud and waste; 76% support Trump’s goal of closing the border; 70% agree that hiring should be based on merit; 61% say tariffs should be reciprocal; and 60% have a positive opinion of DOGE.
About Trump’s executive order banning biological men from competing against women, a New York Times/Ipsos survey found 79% agree with Trump. Even the majority of Democrats back the president, with 67% saying transgender athletes should not compete against women.
What about “climate change”? Former President Joe Biden called it “an existential threat.” Trump, for the second time, pulled the U.S. out of the Paris climate agreement. But among young Americans aged 18 to 34, the group most concerned about the issue, their attitude is shifting. According to an April 2024 Monmouth University poll, half considers it a very serious problem. But this is down 17 points from three years ago.
What about the polling after Trump’s televised Oval Office clash with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy? Trump is facing a storm of criticism from Democrats, European leaders and some Republicans. But CNN data specialist Harry Enten said: “… Do Americans like the way that Trump is handling his job in comparison to how they felt about Joe Biden? … You look at Joe Biden back in 2024, he was 22 points under water, holy cow. You look at Donald Trump, it’s just a different planet entirely, I mean, the gulf between these two is wider between the Gulf of America and the Gulf of Mexico depending on what side of the aisle we stand on. (Trump) is at +2. So look, at this particular point, Americans are giving Donald Trump the benefit of the doubt, he’s doing considerably better than Joe Biden was doing on handling the Russia-Ukraine conflict.”
More Trump effect? Military recruitment is up, as Trump might say, bigly. The Army broke records by enlisting 5,877 recruits in December 2024. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth called this “their most productive December in 15 years.”
Marine veteran and author John Waters told the National Review: “It starts with the president and the secretary of defense, and it flows right down through your unit commander. How you feel about that person and how your family feels about the person absolutely reflects in military recruitment, in belief in the military cause.”
As for Carville’s recommended strategy, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) strongly disagrees. “In fact,” Sanders said, “the problem is the Democrats have been playing dead for too many years.”
OK, then, what’s the Democrats’ plan? Root against Trump, despite the popularity of his America First agenda? Hope that inflation stays high? Wait for Americans to turn against rooting out government waste, fraud and abuse? Hope that Americans continue supporting Ukraine in the costly and deadly war against Russia, a war with no end in sight? Attack Republicans for supporting an extension of tax cuts “that only benefit the rich”? Denounce Elon Musk? Continue calling Trump a dictator?
Even in deep-blue California, things look cloudy for Democrats. A Capitol Weekly poll published early February asked California voters, “Do you think the Democratic Party has shown an ability to present an effective case against the Trump administration?” Seventy-nine percent said no.
Carville’s possum strategy may take some time.
COPYRIGHT 2025 LAURENCE A. ELDER
