There’s trouble ahead for New Yorkers distressed about crime levels.

New York City’s Democratic establishment, including leading mayoral candidates and the City Council majority, are determined to downsize or eliminate the city’s jails altogether. They’ve drunk the decarceration Kool-Aid — and they’re convinced that jails do more harm than good. But the facts prove them wrong.

Prisons keep the rest of us safe, because criminals behind bars can’t commit more crimes.

A City Council hearing last week on criminal justice was straight out of fantasy land. Council member Lincoln Restler said he was “deeply concerned about the number of people incarcerated.” Several members urged the Department of Corrections executives to resume the release program started during COVID-19. Never mind evidence that half of those released soon committed more crimes.

It’s time for the Police Benevolent Association, the Corrections Officers’ Benevolent Association and other public safety advocates to oppose the city’s wacky plan to close Rikers Island, the city’s jail complex, and replace it with four borough-based mini jails that, in total, could house only half of Riker’s current prisoner count.

It’s especially urgent now that Gotham has a new police commissioner — Jessica Tisch — committed to stopping all types of crime, including quality of life offenses. No one can be sent to jail for beating the fare or scrawling graffiti, but many of these minor crimes are committed by recidivist felons wanted for serious crimes. Once they’re arrested, judges can lock them up pretrial, if the jail capacity exists. The commissioner needs jail cells.

Sadly, the Democratic frontrunners for mayor all oppose providing the jail capacity to crack down on crime.

City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams, the latest entry into the Democratic primary for mayor, wants “alternatives to incarceration.”

State Rep. Zohran Mamdani says “the commitment that I would have in coming into office is to take every step to decarcerate.”

Mamdani says public safety is created by “dignified work, economic stability and well-resourced neighborhoods,” not policing and incarceration.

Running in the moderate lane, former Gov. Andrew Cuomo promises to hire 5,000 more cops, but as governor he oversaw the shuttering of 24 state prisons and juvenile detention facilities. And on Sunday he said that he still stands by the law he signed in 2019 that compels judges to release suspects charged with misdemeanors and even felonies such as assault, burglary and auto theft instead of jailing them or requiring cash bail.

The practical impact of the 2019 law was to reduce headcount at Rikers and flood the streets with recidivist criminals. Three months after the law went into effect, crime in New York City shot up 20%, including a 34% hike in robberies, according to New York Police Department Compstat data.

Decarceration got a further push when COVID-19 struck, and by the end of 2020, murders in NYC rose 41% over the prior year, and auto thefts rose 67%, per NYPD Compstat data.

“It’s crazy to think you can reduce crime by reducing the number of people in jail,” explains retired Queens Assistant District Attorney Jim Quinn.

Crazy, but that’s the thinking behind closing Rikers.

When the City Council voted in 2019 to close Rikers, then-Speaker Corey Johnson said that “for decades, this city and this country’s answer to every societal problem was to throw people in jail.”

New Yorkers who value public safety need to speak up against the smaller, borough-based jails. Former Police Commissioner Ray Kelly calls closing Rikers a big mistake and points out that borough jails are a gift to the gangs, who will find it easier to stick together than in the vastness of Rikers.

Leftist Mamdani wants therapeutic alternatives to incarceration. But as the Manhattan Institute’s Hannah Myers explains, mandated rehab programs like job training and therapy do not deter crime.

That doesn’t mean the status quo at Rikers is fine.

The staggering number of assaults on corrections officers and inmates, and the number of inmate deaths from suicide and drug overdoses, are proof the current administration cannot manage Rikers. Federal oversight is needed to protect inmates and corrections staff.

The path forward is to rebuild Rikers building by building. The island location allows secure housing, outdoor recreational facilities and the possibility for expansion if needed.

To reduce crime, New York City needs jail space to keep criminals locked up.

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