As reported by Defense One on February 14, 2025, “The Chinese government is ‘on a dangerous course’ and its military’s ‘aggressive maneuvers around Taiwan right now are not exercises, as they call them. They are rehearsals,’ U.S. Indo-Pacific Command leader Admiral Sam Paparo said.”

What did Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth say in his remarks to NATO just a couple of days ago? He said, “We need to vastly increase our ability to build ships and submarines — not just for ourselves, but also to honor our obligations to our allies. And we will do that.”

At the NATO conference, the SecDef bluntly told NATO nations they were deficient on defense spending and that they needed to step up. He said we are not abandoning NATO, but the EU — with a GDP on par with U.S. GDP — spends much less on their defense than we do, and that needs to end. We are not pulling out of NATO, but we expect them to be able to defend themselves, as the EU collectively has vastly more resources to defend themselves against Russian ambitions than Russia does. The EU + UK GDP is $23.6 trillion versus Russia’s GDP of $2.3 trillion, which is less than 10% of that of the EU and UK combined. The SecDef was emphasizing exactly what President Donald Trump has repeatedly said: The EU and NATO must primarily rely on themselves for security against Russia and any other threat in Europe. The U.S. will not fight another war on the ground with our troops in Europe. Russia is potentially dangerous, but it cannot match a united Europe that is serious about defending itself. Our eyes and efforts must turn to the Indo-Pacific.

The SecDef was asked about the Pacific at the conference. Here is the question by a Japanese reporter and his answer:

REPORTER, JAPAN: “I would like to ask about China. You have mentioned that the U.S. will be prioritizing and deterring China. What role will you be expecting Japan and other Indo-Pacific (IP4) countries to play in this context?”

HEGSETH: “We don’t have an inevitable desire to clash with China. There is a recognition that there are divergent interests, which means we must be strong in order to advance our own interests and deter aggression. … We don’t feel conflict is inevitable and certainly don’t seek conflict with China. That’s why President Trump has worked … ensuring that the U.S. is prepared for any contingency. It is prudent for us to work with allies and partners in the Pacific to ensure deterrence through hard power. … That’s why a lot of my first phone calls as secretary of defense were to Pacific allies — to Australia, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and others. Because just as the NATO alliance is critical, working by, with, and through as and partners in the Indo-Pacific is critical as well. The U.S. alone cannot do everything, everywhere, all at once. And we will not have to, because we are not alone. Our Indo-Pacific allies — Japan, Australia, South Korea, the Philippines, and others — understand the reality of the ascendant Chinese threat. And it will be critical for them to invest in their own deterrence capabilities. It can’t just be America. We need allies to step up — and many of them are already doing so. This is why President Trump has placed a strong emphasis on deterrence in the Pacific. And that’s why one of my top priorities as secretary of defense is ensuring that the U.S. military remains the strongest, most capable, most lethal fighting force on the planet. Because heaven forbid we have to use it — but if we do, it must be ready to close with and destroy our enemies and bring our men and women home with success as quickly as possible.”

Hegseth is bluntly saying a war with the PRC will be in their waters. Thus, the need for the Navy to take the fight to them over there and to defend our friends and allies in the region from the PRC’s ambitions to dominate the Pacific. That will take many more ships, more strategic sealift, and more airpower/airlift.

On February 17, the State Department fact sheet regarding Taiwan was updated. The latest version now omits the statement “we do not support Taiwan independence” from the fact sheet. The State Department, in response to inquiries, says that the U.S. policy toward Taiwan has not changed, but China is furious about the change. It could not be an accident. This is a subtle sign that U.S. policy has changed, and under President Trump, the U.S. will defend Taiwan’s independence against China’s malign intentions.

Data points: At this time, the PRC Navy consists of over 400 ships, 225 armed Coast Guard ships of 500 tons or more, and vast numbers of Maritime Militia. Against these forces, the U.S.‘s 7th Fleet presently has ~50-70 ships in the vicinity of China or our allies in the Pacific. This mismatch is staggering and only getting worse by the day.

Alfred Thayer Mahan in his seminal work The Influence of Sea Power Upon History said, “The history of sea power is largely, though by no means solely, a narrative of contests between nations, of mutual rivalries, of violence frequently culminating in war. The profound influence of sea commerce upon the wealth and strength of countries was clearly seen long before the true principles which governed its growth and prosperity were detected.”

Teddy Roosevelt: “A good Navy is not a provocation to war. It is the surest guaranty of peace.”

Ronald Reagan: “The only thing more expensive than a Navy is not having a Navy.”

Admiral Sir John Fisher: “Sea power is the ability to project a nation’s will across the world’s oceans.”

Walter Raleigh: “Whoever commands the sea, commands the trade; whosoever commands the trade of the world commands the riches of the world, and consequently the world itself.”

It is urgent that the Trump administration build up the Navy. It will take dramatic strengthening of the defense industrial base, especially the shipbuilding industry. It will require a massive increase in employment in the defense industry, especially in the trades, which is something that is long overdue. Restoring our Navy to overwhelming superiority and strength must be executed with the same kind of urgency and priority as the Manhattan Project during WWII. The strength of China and its Navy is a present-day existential threat to our security and longevity. If we fail to act, America will be defeated in the Pacific in the inevitable coming war, and our nation will be relegated to the status of a second-rate power — and eventually, China will rule the world, including the U.S. Whatever it takes, we must counter China’s ambitions to rule the world.

(Originally posted here.)