During a recent two-and-a-half hour visit with Donald Trump, lefty comedian-commentator Bill Maher had the following insightful observation: “A crazy person doesn’t live in the White House. A person who plays a crazy person on TV a lot lives there.”

At the risk of deciphering the Trump Rosetta Stone, we think Maher is onto something.

Trump isn’t crazy. Not even close. Only the media and the Trump-deranged legions (but we repeat ourselves) believe that. Trump is, however, crazy smart — especially when it comes to human nature. And it’s in this realm that he strategically deploys the tendencies of craziness as a means of dealmaking.

I’m not making stuff up. The president, in fact, has admitted as much. Last October, when asked by The Wall Street Journal’s Paul Gigot whether he’d use military force against China if Xi Jinping blockaded Taiwan, Trump responded, “I wouldn’t have to because he respects me and he knows I’m f***ing crazy.” Like a master magician sharing the tricks of the trade, Trump continued, shifting to Russia:

I said to Putin, ‘Vladimir, we have a great relationship.’ I got along with him great. He’s a different kind of a character, I will tell you, much different than anybody under — I knew him very well. I said, ‘Vladimir, if you go after Ukraine, I am going to hit you so hard, you’re not even going to believe it. I’m going to hit you right in the middle of fricking Moscow.’ I said, ‘We’re friends. I don’t want to do it, but I have no choice.’ He goes, ‘No way.’ I said, ‘Way.’ I said, ‘You’re going to be hit so hard, and I’m going to take those f***ing domes right off your head.’ Because, you know, he lives under the domes.“

Here, Trump’s volatility — real or perceived — is a geopolitical deterrent. We can see it at work elsewhere, too. Take the war between Russia and Ukraine, where Trump recently announced his willingness to walk away from the dealmaking table if the two sides don’t make progress.

Or take the tariff wars, which our Mark Alexander recently described as "Shock and Awe” and which National Review’s Jim Geraghty termed “Multiple Personality.” Both are correct. Geraghty follows Trump’s bouncing tariff rate on China from 20.8% to 30.8% to 40.8% to 42.1% to 134.7% to, as of April 12, 124.1%.

Why, it’s enough to make even the most filthy, thieving, predatory, battle-hardened commie protectionist’s head spin. And does anyone want to bet that tariff rate moves again by week’s end? Yesterday’s Wall Street Journal headline gave us a hint: “White House Considers Slashing China Tariffs to De-Escalate Trade War.” As the article reports, “The Trump administration is considering slashing its steep tariffs on Chinese imports — in some cases by more than half — in a bid to de-escalate tensions with Beijing that have roiled global trade and investment, according to people familiar with the matter.”

Trump caved! the media will say. Or, He’s all over the place!

For Trump, though, the roiling of things is a feature, not a bug. And his unpredictability works domestically, too. Take his recent flirtation with firing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. As The Wall Street Journal once again reports, “White House lawyers were studying legal options for ousting the Fed chair, but senior advisers warned Trump that attempting to do so would rattle markets.”

Shake, rattle, and roil, right?

In his 2017 book Win Bigly: Persuasion in a World Where Facts Don’t Matter, Scott Adams, the Dilbert guy, the guy who practically alone predicted Trump’s electoral victory in 2016, had this to say about the political neophyte who singlehandedly took on and wrecked not only the Clinton and Obama machines, but the Bush machine as well: “Trump is what I call a Master Persuader. That means he has weapons-grade persuasion skills. Based on my background in that field, I recognized his talents early. And after watching him in action during the election, I have to say that Trump is the most persuasive human I have ever observed.”

Trump’s seemingly mercurial nature is a key component of his powerful, persuasive mix. Accordingly, his behavior will shift in an unpredictable way depending on the environment — all along a continuum from, I hate this guy to I love this guy. With apologies to Werner Heisenberg, let’s call this the Trump Uncertainty Principle.

Thirty-eight years ago, in his business classic, The Art of the Deal, Trump laid out what he calls the Elements of the Deal: think big; protect the downside and the upside will take care of itself; maximize your options; know your market; use your leverage; enhance your location; get the word out; fight back; deliver the goods; contain the costs; and last, have fun. We can see variations on these themes in practically every deal Trump does as president — especially the last one.

Does anyone doubt that Donald Trump doesn’t absolutely love this stuff? That he doesn’t wake up each morning thirsting for a deal?