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April 10, 2025

Thursday: Below the Fold

Trump pauses (most) tariffs, a positive inflation report, two more judges block deportations, and more.

  • Trump pauses (most) tariffs: After a week of steep stock market losses in response to Donald Trump’s “shock and awe” tariff strategy, yesterday he announced a 90-day pause on his worldwide tariffs (except for raising tariffs further on the real target, China). The market welcomed the news with a historic rally. Wall Street has been very volatile since “Liberation Day,” but on Wednesday it soared between Trump’s announcement and the market closing, and global markets followed overnight. Still, as the tariffs are only on pause and deals have yet to be made, volatility remains this morning, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 2.4% at the time of writing. Despite The Wall Street Journal and others calling the 90-day pause a “blink” from Trump, this was a calculated gambit all along. His art form involves preparing for chaos, creating the chaos, and then seizing advantage from the chaos while everyone else panics. It often seems to be a winning strategy.

  • Inflation report: Inflationary growth slowed more than expected in March, as the consumer price index fell by 0.1%, dipping the 12-month inflation rate to 2.4%. Overall, food and energy prices, or the core inflation rate, also increased less than anticipated, rising just 0.1% in March, with the annual rate hitting 2.8%. That represents the lowest rise in core inflation since March 2021. These are all positive numbers, but given Donald Trump’s recent tariff actions, economists question whether this inflationary deceleration will continue. Of concern is a significant drop in small business optimism, as the National Federation of Independent Business noted its business optimism index had its largest monthly decline since June 2022. So, it’s good news overall, but with a hefty dose of uncertainty.

  • Two more judges block deportations: In a trend that will most likely continue, two new stays have been issued to block Trump’s mass deportations. The Supreme Court partially sided with Trump on Monday, overturning a temporary restraining order from Judge James Boasberg that stopped deportations nationally. The problem for the administration is that the SCOTUS decision was based on jurisdiction and didn’t challenge the right to issue a temporary restraining order in appropriate venues — i.e., the district detainees are in. The issue for the Court is that detainees and deportees must have a habeas hearing whereby they can contest their deportation. For the Trump administration and law-abiding Americans, the frustration arises from the lack of judicial oversight during the previous administration’s border invasion.

  • House passes bill to limit nationwide injunctions: On Wednesday, House Republicans successfully passed the No Rogue Ruling Act, which aims to counter judicial activism by limiting the ability of federal judges to issue nationwide injunctions. The bill passed by a vote of 219-213, with one Republican, Mike Turner (OH), siding with Democrats in voting against the legislation. The bill’s sponsor, Darrel Issa (CA), specifically highlighted the increasing use of nationwide injunctions as “yet another gambit to stop President Trump from exercising his constitutional powers and carrying out the policies he promised the American people he would make a reality.” Should the bill become law, it would require a three-judge panel randomly selected in cases brought by two or more states against the executive branch for any nationwide injunctions to be ordered. A similar bill has been introduced in the Senate.

  • Another IRS chief resigns: Acting IRS Director Melanie Krause announced her resignation on Wednesday following an agreement between the Treasury Department and DHS granting access to taxpayer data to help ICE identify illegal aliens. According to sources, Krause’s resignation was in protest of this deal. She has now become the third IRS chief to resign from the post since Donald Trump took office. Former Acting Director Doug O'Donnell resigned in February over the Treasury’s first effort at a data-sharing deal with DHS, and former Senate-confirmed Director Danny Wefel quit on Trump’s first day. Following the data-sharing agreement, DHS spokesman Tricia McLaughlin argued, “Under President Trump’s leadership, the government is finally doing what it should have done all along: sharing information across the federal government to solve problems.” Meanwhile, the IRS announced last Friday it would lay off workers in a downsizing effort to trim 25% of its bloated workforce.

  • Unemployment benefits for “fake people”: DOGE continues its good work uncovering waste and fraud in the federal government, and the most recent announcement is a doozy. Some future American born in the year 2154 AD has already collected $41,000 in unemployment insurance claims. You know the economy is bad when someone not yet conceived can’t find work. Also found in DOGE’s survey are 24,500 people over the age of 115 collecting $59,000,000, 28K people under five years old collecting $254 million, and almost 10K people born at least 15 years in the future collecting $69 million in benefits. If you’re going to commit fraud, maybe stick to birth years that are actually possible.

  • Dems sue to block voter ID: Roughly 80% of Americans favor requiring voter ID to cast a ballot. Yet Democrats continue to insist that one of the most apparent and basic means for safeguarding elections is “racist.” Attorneys general from 19 Democrat-run states have raised a lawsuit against Donald Trump’s voter ID executive order that mandates government-issued proof of U.S. citizenship for voter registration irrespective of a state’s voter ID laws. The lawsuit claims that Trump’s EO violates the Constitution because it interferes with state sovereignty in regulating elections. According to Trump’s order, states that fail to abide by it will lose federal funding. The question is, why are these Democrat-led states opposed to a commonsense measure like voter ID? Is it because they are opposed to preventing election fraud?

  • No nukes for Iran: Unlike the Biden regime, the Trump administration is signaling that it takes the threat of Iran seriously. The Biden weakness on Iran was rewarded with the October 7 assault on Israel. Trump is taking a different approach with a maximum pressure campaign and increased sanctions on two key players in Iran’s nuclear development, the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) and the Iran Centrifuge Technology Company (TESA), ahead of planned talks in Oman on Saturday. These sanctions focus on denying AEOI and TESA resources and materials needed for uranium enrichment or research facilities. The Trump team is in negotiation mode for these talks, but the key point — stopping Iran’s “reckless pursuit of nuclear weapons” — must be achieved. If these talks fail, Iran must consider America’s current military posture in the Middle East, including two carrier strike groups.

Headlines

  • House approves Senate blueprint for “big, beautiful” Trump budget bill after conservative rebellion (NY Post)

  • U.S. and Russia swap prisoners in deal arranged by intelligence agencies (WSJ)

  • Biden admin held private talks with Beijing on Chinese spy balloon ahead of notifying public (Fox News)

  • DHS to screen visa applicants for anti-Semitism activity on social media (UPI)

  • Pentagon eliminates woke violations of Trump’s executive orders (Daily Signal)

  • Federal agencies spent $4.6 billion on furniture for empty buildings (The Federalist)

  • Colorado background checks surge as gun rights restrictions advance (Complete Colorado)

  • Humor: Here are the products most affected by tariffs in each country (Babylon Bee)

For the Executive Summary archive, click here.

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